The Scottish Government has to produce a new plan on meeting climate targets by November, but their scientific advisers have told them that Scotland’s 2030 target is now almost impossible to meet.
Scotland’s 2019 Climate Act set three targets. By 2030 we were supposed to have reduced our emissions by 75% compared to those in 1990. There is also a 2040 target and then of course the target of reaching net zero emissions by 2045.
When these targets were agreed with cross-party support four and a half years ago, they were based not on what was easily achievable, but on what the world needed to stay below the temperature goals in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Delivering on these three targets would be Scotland’s fair share of keeping the world below a 2°C temperature rise, with an attempt to stay close to only 1.5°C.
Since the targets were set, the global climate emergency has accelerated. International climate scientists say that impacts are coming earlier and more strongly than previously predicted.
In the 31 years between 1990 and 2021, Scotland’s total emissions fell by 50%. The 2030 target means that emissions must be halved again by that year.
Scotland’s targets were widely welcomed, and no doubt influenced other countries as they set targets and made pledges about climate action but now the Scottish Government’s official advisor, the Committee on Climate Change, has said that not enough has been done, and it is now almost impossible to meet the 2030 target.
There has been impressive progress in the electricity and waste sectors, but little progress in transport, now the largest sector for emissions, or in agriculture, industry or land use.
There are promising new policies for heat in buildings, and in transport. There was the opportunity in the new agriculture bill to make sure that the £600+m a year the public purse gives to farmers could make a big dent in emissions from the sector, but the current proposals are that 70% of the money will still be based on supporting production with only weak conditions relating to climate change.
Some policy is also heading firmly in the wrong direction, by considering building a new gas-fired power station at Peterhead, supporting wasteful hydrogen heating for homes and chasing the myth of widespread carbon capture and storage. Meanwhile, the UK government is determined to maximise oil and gas extraction from the North Sea and the SNP are failing to give clear messages on this, scared of losing votes in the North East.
The Scottish Government is considering its options. It could reduce the 2030 target. It could change the legal requirement for a new climate plan. It doesn’t have long if it wants to make changes to the law on climate targets, plans and reporting.
Targets are important. They drive action. Plans are important. They show us if we are on a credible pathway to meet our targets. But the key thing now is action – to do everything we can to reduce emissions.
As an open letter to the FM from 63 civil society organisations said last week “every part of the government must shift onto an emergency footing, redoubl[ing] efforts to fairly reduce emissions.”
A version of this blog appeared in the Scotsman newspaper on the 3rd April 2024